Recession or not?

A summer of modest economic growth is helping dispel lingering fears that another recession might be near. Whether the strength can be sustained is less certain. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. But the growth was fueled by Americans who spent more while earning less and by businesses that invested in machines and computers, not workers. The expansion, the best quarterly growth in a year, came as a relief after anemic growth in the first half of the year, weeks of wild stock market shifts and the weakest consumer confidence since the height of the Great Recession. The economy would have to grow at nearly double the third-quarter pace to make a dent in the unemployment rate, which has stayed near 9% since the recession officially ended more than two years ago. For the more than 14 million Americans who are out of work and want a job, that's discouraging news. And for President Barack Obama and incumbent members of Congress, it means they'll be facing voters with unemployment near 9%. "It is still a very weak economy out there," said David Wyss, former chief economist at Standard & Poor's. For now, the report on US gross domestic product, or GDP, sketched a more optimistic picture for an economy that only two months ago seemed at risk of another recession.

Some economists doubt the economy can maintain its modest third-quarter pace. US lawmakers are debating deep cuts in federal spending next year that would drag on growth. And state and local governments have been slashing budgets for more than a year. Obama's $447 billion jobs plan was blocked by Republicans, meaning that a Social Security tax cut that put an extra $1,000 to $2,000 this year in most American's pockets could expire in January. So could extended unemployment benefits. They have been a key source of income for many people out of work for more than six months. Nor is the economy likely to get a lift from the depressed housing market. Typically, home construction drives growth during an economic recovery. But builders have been contributing much less to the economy this time. Wyss said that the collapse of housing had probably depressed annual growth by as much as 1.5 percentage points in the past two years. Paul Ashworth, chief US economist for Capital Economics, predicts that growth will cool in the fourth quarter and next year. "While our baseline forecast does not include an outright contraction, we expect GDP growth to average a very lackluster 1.5% next year," Ashworth said in a note to clients.

NAR - existing home sales down

Existing-home sales eased in June as contract cancellations spiked unexpectedly, although prices were up slightly, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales gains in the Midwest and South were offset by declines in the Northeast and West. Single-family home sales were stable while the condo sector weakened. Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million in June from 4.81 million in May, and remain 8.8% below the 5.23 million unit level in June 2010, which was the scheduled closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $184,300 in June, up 0.8% from June 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales generally sold at deep discounts – accounted for 30% of sales in June, compared with 31% in May and 32% in June 2010. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.51% in June, down from 4.64% in May; the rate was 4.74% in June 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3% to 3.77 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 9.1-month supply in May. All-cash transactions accounted for 29% of sales in June; they were 30% in May and 24% in June 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases. First-time buyers purchased 31% of homes in June, down from 36% in May; they were 43% in June 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors accounted for 19% of purchase activity in June, unchanged from May; they were 13% in June 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50% market share in June, up from 45% in May, which appears to be a normal seasonal gain.

Single-family home sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million in June, but are 7.4% below a 4.58 million pace in June 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $184,600 in June, up 0.6% from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 7.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000 in June from 570,000 in May, and are 18.0% below the 646,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $182,300 in June, up 1.8% from June 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.2% to anannual pace of 730,000 in June and are 17.0% below June 2010. Themedian price in the Northeast was $261,000, up 3.1% from a yearago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.0% in June to a pace of 1.04 million but are 14.0% below a year ago. The medianprice in the Midwest was $147,700, down 5.3% from June 2010. Inthe South, existing-home sales increased 0.5% to an annual level of 1.86 million in June but are 5.6% below June 2010. The medianprice in the South was $159,100, down 0.1% from a year ago.Existing-home sales in the West declined 1.7% to an annual paceof 1.14 million in June and are 2.6% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $240,400, up 9.5% from June 2010.

Retailers have strong June sales

American consumers that were enticed by warmer weather and deep discounts of up to 80% on summer merchandise went on a buying binge in June, helping many retailers deliver robust revenue gains for what is typically the second-biggest shopping month of the year. Big merchants Target Corp., Costco Wholesale Corp., Limited Brands Inc. as well as teen retailers such as The Buckle were among the companies that posted June results that beat Wall Street estimates. The few stragglers included Destination Maternity Corp. and Bon Ton Stores, which reported declines. The figures are based on revenue at stores opened at least a year. This measure is considered a key indicator of a retailer's health because it excludes results from stores opened or closed during the year. June is the second most important month on a retailers' sales calendar behind December. During the month, stores typically clear out summer merchandise to make room for fall goods. But this time, it took deep discounts of up to 80% to get shoppers to buy amid worries about the economy.

Analysts fear that retailers have not quite turned a corner. After all, gas prices are still 35% higher than last year at this time. Moreover, prices in the food aisle remain high and this fall, shoppers will be seeing the price tags of fashion and accessories rise as retailers try to offset higher labor costs in China and soaring prices of raw materials like cotton. Shoppers' biggest concerns remain a weak job recovery and stagnant wages. These worries sent consumer confidence to a seven-year low in June, according to the Conference Board's survey released last
week. In fact, consumer confidence has never been this low in the 24th month of a recovery, according to David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and investment strategist at the Toronto-based money management firm Gluskin Sheff. Historically at the two-year mark, confidence is at 94, not 58.5, which was recorded by The Conference Board's June survey.

Wells Fargo modification outnumber Obama's 5 to 1

Wells Fargo completed or started trials on roughly 585,000 mortgage modifications through its private programs since the beginning of 2009, more than five times the 101,000 initiated through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). HAMP launched in March 2009 but almost immediately drew criticism. Treasury officials admit the more than 3 million modifications initially promised was over estimated. Through May, servicers started roughly 731,000 permanent loan modifications and have been averaging between 25,000 and 30,000 per month this year. According to a recent poll of housing counselors, only 9% of borrowers who entered the program described it as a "positive" experience. Homeowners continually blame servicers for mishandling documentation. Overwhelmed servicers point out many borrowers are simply out of reach. "Avoiding foreclosure is a top priority for us and when customers work with us, we can help seven of every 10 to stay out of foreclosure," said Teri Schrettenbrunner, senior vice president, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.

The Treasury points out most of the private programs built since the foreclosure crisis use HAMP as a model. But since mishandled foreclosure and modification processes came to light late last year, new standards were put in place, including a single point of contact that servicers are required to provide throughout the loss-mitigation process. The Treasury began to clamp down on poorly performing servicers — at least to the extent their contracts with these firms allow. In June, the Treasury announced it was withholding HAMP payments from Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells. Schrettenbrunner said the bank continues to build on its primary contact model it established last summer, and the bank has met with 58,000 borrowers at 31 home preservation workshops. Half of those received a decision on the spot or shortly after the event. Schrettenbrunner said the department continues to "aggressively reach out" to borrowers behind on payments to bridge the communication gap as quickly as possible. "We also continue to aggressively reach out to customers 60 or more days behind on their home loans via mail and telephone in an effort to engage them," Schrettenbrunner said.

WSJ - tighter lending hurts housing

The percentage of mortgage applications rejected by the nation's largest lenders increased last year, spotlighting how banks' cautious lending practices are hampering the nascent housing market recovery. In all, the nation's 10 largest mortgage lenders denied 26.8% of loan applications in 2010, an increase from 23.5% in 2009, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of mortgage data filed with banking regulators. Although lenders were expected to pull back from the freewheeling conditions that helped inflate the housing bubble, some economists argue they are now too conservative, and say that with the US economy still wobbly, mortgages need to be easier to obtain for qualified borrowers, not harder. "As the noose on credit availability tightens, credit is being choked off at a time when the housing market is extremely fragile," says Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group LP.

Christopher Thornberg, a housing economist at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, counters that "banks are doing what they need to do" to change lending standards in the wake of a "crazy bubble.” He adds, "You had decades where credit standards were tougher than they are even now."

Among the would-be borrowers having a harder time are those who have seen their incomes fall or interrupted by a period of unemployment, scenarios that have become increasingly common in recent years. Some self-employed applicants are also hitting barriers to loans—hurdles they didn't face in the past. Lending standards are still tight in part because government entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration, which collectively account for more than nine in 10 loans being made today, are under heavy pressure to avoid any losses. Those firms don't make loans directly but instead purchase or guarantee mortgages that meet their standards, and so have significant influence over which loans banks are willing to approve.

Housing starts up

The number of permits for future housing construction jumped to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 612,000 last month, up 8.7%
from the revised rate of 563,000 in April, the Commerce
Department said. It was the highest monthly rate since December
and was much higher than expected, with economists surveyed by
Briefing.com looking for a 548,000 permit rate. Permits for
single-family homes, viewed as a more stable indicator of new
homebuilding activity than permits for multi-family home
construction, ticked up 2.5% from April to a rate of 405,000.
Housing starts, the number of new homes being built, rose 3.5% in
May to an annual rate of 560,000 units from a revised 541,000 in
April, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected an
annual rate of 540,000 units, according to consensus estimates
from Briefing.com. Construction of single-family homes rose 3.7%
to a rate of 419,000.

While permits are typically viewed as an indication of builders'
confidence in the housing market, the big jump in permits could
have had a lot to do with seasonality, even allowing for the
government's adjustment, said Doug Roberts, chief investment
strategist for Channel Capital Research. Roberts said that this
is the prime time of year to begin construction, given the better
weather. And given the flooding and bad weather in April, many
builders may have gotten off to a late start -- leading to a jump
in permits and housing starts last month. "These are the months
where the most construction occurs, so this increase could be
more of a seasonal blip," he said.

Luxury housing leading the recovery

The housing market is showing "signs of improvement" with help
from luxury home sales, Toll Brothers Chief Executive Douglas
Yearley said yesterday. "There are some signs luxury is leading
us out of this a little bit," he said. "We're clearly off the
bottom." But while Toll is a builder of those luxury homes, the
CEO expects sales the rest of the year to be relatively flat.
That's despite 60% of Toll sales coming from the northeast
corridor of Boston to Washington, D.C., which was not hit with
the same housing problems as Las Vegas and Florida, among others.
"I think in pockets we’ll see some success," Yearley said.
"The good news is pricing has definitely stabilized. We’re not
seeing price reductions. In some isolated cases, we have some
pricing power, we’re able to raise prices." He added that
after five or six years of waiting, buyers want "to move on with
their lives and I think they’re done trying to time the perfect
point to get in the market. They’re taking advantage of great
interest rates. Affordability’s at an all-time high…It’s
helping us but we have a long ways to go."

Mini-budget cuts signed

President Obama signed a budget cutting stop-gap spending bill yesterday after it was passed by the Senate by 91 votes. The bill terminates eight government programs, for savings of $1.24 billion, while an additional $2.7 billion in earmarks are eliminated. On the chopping block were eight programs involving broadband access in rural communities, education, highway construction and the Smithsonian Institution. All eight had been identified by both parties as wasteful and unnecessary. The programs that were cut fall into two umbrella categories: ineffective or duplicative. The bill eliminated $75 million in election assistance grants, which are funds allocated to help states upgrade voting machines and voter rolls.

Since 2002, Washington has pumped $3 billion into the program, but states have only found ways to spend $2 billion. And that rural broadband program? The Agriculture Department's inspector general uncovered "abuses and inconsistencies" as well as "a lack of focus on the rural communities it was intended to serve." The four education programs total $468 million, and are being eliminated for being outdated, ineffective or duplicative. The highway funds, $650 million in total, were originally budgeted as a one-time payment for 2010 but never cut. The remaining $2.7 billion in cuts cover almost 50 different earmark programs that will no longer be funded because House Republicans have instituted a new rule banning that type of spending.

Obama tries to force mortgage deal

WSJ - Obama tries to force mortgage deal

The Obama administration is trying to push through a settlement over mortgage-servicing breakdowns that could force America's largest banks to pay for reductions in loan principal worth billions of dollars. Terms of the administration's proposal include a commitment from mortgage servicers to reduce the loan balances of troubled borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth, people familiar with the matter said. The cost of those writedowns won't be borne by investors who purchased mortgage-backed securities, these people said. If a unified settlement can be reached, some state attorneys general and federal agencies are pushing for banks to pay more than $20 billion in civil fines or to fund a comparable amount of loan modifications for distressed borrowers, these people said. But forging a comprehensive settlement may be difficult. A deal would have to win approval from federal regulators and state attorneys general, as well as some of the nation's largest mortgage ser
vicers, including Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Those banks declined to comment.

So far, most loan modifications have focused on shrinking monthly payments by lowering interest rates and extending loan terms. Banks, as well as mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been shy to embrace principal reductions, in part due to concerns that many borrowers who can afford their loans will stop paying in the hope of being rewarded with a smaller loan. Several federal agencies have been scrutinizing the nation's largest banks over breakdowns in foreclosure procedures that erupted last fall. Last week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said only a small number of borrowers had been improperly foreclosed upon. But the regulator raised concerns over inadequate staffing and weak controls over certain foreclosure processes.

A settlement must satisfy an unwieldy mix of authorities, including state attorneys general and regulators such as the newly formed Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, who support heftier fines. They must also appease banking regulators, such as the OCC, that are concerned penalties could be too stiff. "Nothing has been finalized among the states, and it's our understanding that the federal agencies we are in discussions with have not finalized their positions," said a spokesman for Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is spearheading a 50-state investigation of mortgage-servicing practices.

FHFA presents new compensation model

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has issued a 28-page document that presents several alternatives it plans to consider for how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac compensate mortgage servicers. The report is part of joint initiative announced by FHFA and HUD in January to revise the compensation model for mortgage servicing. The new payment models are also being considered for companies that service Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans on behalf of Ginnie Mae. Currently, the typical compensation structure pays the loan servicer from a strip of the interest on each mortgage, an “IO” strip, regardless of loan status, FHFA explained.

The agency says the IO strip is a difficult asset to manage and results in a servicer receiving more than enough income to cover the expenses of servicing performing loans, but not enough when a portfolio includes a significant number of nonperforming loans. FHFA says this arrangement decreases the flexibility needed to ensure optimal servicing of nonperforming loans during times of high defaults like the industry is currently experiencing. The document outlines various alternatives to the current pay model, including a fee-for-service compensation structure for nonperforming loans and reducing or eliminating the minimum mortgage servicing fee for performing loans. FHFA provides extensive analysis of the alternative scenarios that encompasses illustrations of cash flows and accounting, capital calculations and requirements, and mortgage rate setting. FHFA says the ideas, models, and alternatives included in the presentation should be used as starting points “to generate
thinking and to explain concerns with the current compensation system.”

The agency said it is coordinating the efforts of the initiative to gather feedback from the industry, consumer groups, investors, and other regulators and government agencies. FHFA has established a dedicated Web link to post information related to the servicing compensation initiative, including background materials and issues that should be considered as development moves forward. When the administration released its plan for winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier this month, officials stressed that one of the near-term reforms on the agenda is reforming servicing compensation. FHFA said in January that implementation of a new servicing compensation structure is not expected to occur before the summer of 2012.